Saturday, September 7, 2013

Shipping sector on a recovery

I've posted before that the shipping industry may be on a recovery. First post was on June 20 here and second post was on July 14 here.

I've wrote about the Baltic Dry Index (BDY) and how it is related to the shipping industry. In simple terms, the BDY tracks the cost to transport raw materials. The higher the cost, the higher the index. A higher cost to transport means shipping firms get to earn more on each route.

The BDY has risen by another 25% since the first time i posted about it. Look at the chart here. Dry bulk shipping stocks have already anticipated the move and is on the rise now.

Manufacturing data from the US, China and the Eurozone is showing expansion also. Demand for goods is picking up.

There are 2 shipping stocks listed in the US that have already doubled in price.

The first one is Dryships (DRYS). From a low of 1.49, it has risen to about 2.88 now.

 The second is Diana shipping (DSX). From a low of $6.20, it has risen to about $12.50 now.

How about shipping stocks listed in the Singapore exchange? I've not seen any major movement on shipping stocks listed in Singapore yet. Maybe this would be an opportunity to buy them now at low prices and anticipate the move up. I will never know what will happen. It is purely a speculation. 

Speculation or not? I'll still be watching out for shipping stocks now. There are pretty good fundamental shipping stocks like marco polo marine. Singapore owned NOL may benefit from the recovery also. A caution is NOL has been struggling for many years and we won't be sure whether they can come out of it. 

Let's see what will happen by the end of the year. It is the time to research and watch it carefully now. 

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